15 June 2009

:June 15, 2009::Forecast for the Week

Tuesday and Wednesday should also bring us a clearer picture of where things stand on the inflation front. Tuesday brings the wholesale price inflation measuring Producer Price Index (PPI) Report, while Wednesday delivers the inflation news on the retail level, via the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report. Remember: Inflation is the arch enemy of home loan rates, so it will be very important to see what these reports reveal.

Thursday also brings news from the manufacturing sector with the Philadelphia Fed Report. This monthly survey of manufacturing purchasing managers conducting business around the tri-state area of Pennsylvania , New Jersey , and Delaware is one of the most-watched manufacturing reports overall. And with last week's continuing Jobless Claims reaching another record, this week's Initial Jobless Claims Report will be another important one to watch.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. As you can see in the chart below, Bonds were able to rebound and see some improvement late last week, and I'll be staying tuned to see if Bonds are able to continue in this direction.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jun 12, 2009)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

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