Rates move higher in past 2 weeks after their bottom in May

As I mentioned before, added supply has been one of the main culprits behind the recent sell-off in Bonds and corresponding climb in home loan rates. So where is that supply coming from? First, all those refinances you've heard about lately are actually turned into Mortgage Backed Securities after they're closed, which adds more Bonds to the market. Plus, government spending plans have to be paid for somehow.so record levels of Treasury Securities are being auctioned off these days. Although the Fed has a program to purchase some of these Mortgage Bonds, the number of new Bonds simply outweighs what the Fed is able to buy - therefore driving Bond prices lower and home loan rates higher.

There was some good news for the economy as Consumer Sentiment came in at its highest level in 9 months, and Retail Sales were inline with estimates, marking the biggest rebound for Retail Sales in 4 months. There was mixed news on the Jobs front: While Initial Jobless Claims were below estimates, continuing claims rose to 6.82 million, which is another new record. And US exports fell to the lowest level in almost 3 years, as the US Balance of Trade widened in April for the second month. However, US exports should improve a bit in the coming days, as the US Dollar recently sank against foreign currencies, which makes US goods cheaper and more attractive to buy. The flip side of that coin however, is that since oil is Dollar denominated, the price per barrel rises to compensate for the erosion in the Dollar.meaning higher prices at the pump and elsewhere.

Bonds and home loan rates were able to muster up some improvement on Thursday and Friday, helped in part by news that the Paulson & Co. hedge fund is purchasing distressed debt and Mortgage Backed Securities, which will help alleviate some of the supply mentioned above. However, home loan rates still ended the week .25% to .375% worse than where they began.

Since Bond prices react negatively to any news of economic recovery, it's important to work with a knowledgeable advisor who monitors the markets every move. Let me know if you have any questions about your situation.

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