(Remember, inflation is the archenemy of Bonds and home loan rates, so I will be keeping a close eye on this in the coming months.)
The Department of Housing and Urban Development's Federal Housing Administration making a very interesting announcement that ultimately appeared to be slightly premature. They announced a new plan to allow first-time homebuyers to use the Federal tax credit of up to $8,000 for a down payment at closing, rather than making buyers wait to receive the benefit after the fact at tax time. However, no details or logistics of how this will actually work were released, causing them to actually pull some of the industry announcements as they regroup to provide more details. This could be great news for first-time homebuyers, who are slated to account for 53% of home purchases in 2009. When the details of the program are fully released, I will certainly keep you posted as I learn more.
Bonds and home loan rates were able to make some improvements in the early part of the week as weak economic reports caused money to flow from Stocks into Bonds. And while Bonds lost some ground on Friday, home loan rates still ended the week slightly improved from where they began.
"I WILL ACT NOW. I WILL ACT NOW. I WILL ACT NOW." Og Mandino. The markets took those words to heart last week, with plenty of timely action ranging from telling economic reports to interesting announcements from the government, related to homebuyers.
On the economic news front, the headlines were mixed. On the disappointing side was a worse than expected Retail Sales Report, which showed that consumers are continuing to tighten their purse strings. Not entirely surprising, but it did mark the eighth decline in the past ten months for Retail Sales. Initial Unemployment Claims were also reported worse than expected - which some said were due to massive Chrysler layoffs - but still was disappointing after there had been some recent signs of improvement in the labor markets.
However, there was positive economic news as well, including improved readings from the manufacturing sector, as the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index improved for the third month straight. Consumer Sentiment was also better than the previous reading and the best since September of last year. So although the consumer isn't out spending money with abandon just yet, this report shows that most folks are indeed starting to feel better about the economic outlook, likely due in part to the values of their investment accounts improving as Stock values move higher.
Looking at the always-important inflation headlines, wholesale inflation levels moved higher in April, driven by an increase in food prices. On the consumer inflation side, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was flat, although the Core CPI - which removes food and energy prices - was a little hotter than expected, largely due to a huge spike in tobacco prices by a smoking 9.3%! Core inflation has been moving slightly higher since February, as you can see in the chart below.
-----------------------Chart: Core Consumer Price Index
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