Economic Activity for the week

This morning's GDP revision for the 4th quarter came in a little higher or stronger than last month's previous estimate of 5.7%. Today's release showed a 5.9% rate of growth, meaning economic activity was stronger than many had thought.

This headline number is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because a strengthening economy raises inflation concerns and make bonds less appealing to investors. However, a relatively important inflation reading within the data was revised lower than previously thought. That has helped to keep bonds in positive ground today.

The second report of the morning came from the University of Michigan who updated their Index of Consumer Sentiment for February. They announced a reading of 73.6 that was close to forecasts. It is a slight decline from the previous estimate but this small change didn't affect mortgage pricing today.

Also posted this morning was January's Existing Home Sales data from the National Association of Realtors. They reported a 7.2% decline in home resales last month when a small increase was expected. This dropped sales to their lowest level since last summer, indicating that the housing sector still has some hurdles to tackle. This can be considered favorable news for bonds, but the data usually does not heavily influence trading or mortgage rates.

Next week is looking to be pretty active with several important economic reports scheduled for release. There is relevant data being posted four out of the five days, with a couple of them having multiple releases scheduled. Monday does bring us the release of some important data with January's Personal Income and Outlays report and February's Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index both scheduled. Income and spending are expected to rise, but the ISM index is likely to show that manufacturer sentiment slipped this month.
But February's non-farm payrolls report from the U.S. Labor Department will be the main event as job losses continue to give investors reason to question the sustainability of the economy's recovery.  This report will be released this coming Friday morning.
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